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NOVEMBER 1,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:58 P.M. ET: 

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – FROM BRITAIN'S ITV:  Donald Trump would be a danger to women and girls if elected president, Hillary Clinton warned as she desperately tried to shift the narrative away from the FBI's renewed investigation into her email practices.  Clinton used a speech in the key battleground state of Florida to launch a concerted attack on Trump's behaviour, accusing him of “demeaning, degrading and assaulting women” over 30 years.  “Look at what he does - he calls women ugly, disgusting, nasty, all the time. He calls women pigs, rates bodies on a scale of 1 to 10,” she said.  As opposed to her husband, whose respect for women is so well known.

A BIT GROSS – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   This could blow up in her face!  Hillary Clinton may have lit the fuse for her victory celebration a little too soon — by planning an Election Night explosion of fireworks over the Hudson River, The Post has learned.  Law enforcement officials and the FDNY have been told to prepare for a barge-launched pyrotechnic display off Manhattan’s Javits Center, where Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine will join their supporters for the Nov. 8 vote count, sources said.  The aerial detonations would last for two minutes, with the triumphal celebration permitted to start as early as 9:30 p.m. — a mere half-hour after the polls close in New York, sources said.  Just remember that headline from 1948:  "Dewey Defeats Truman."

YOU CAN STILL SWITCH – FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES:  Early voters who have buyer’s remorse can switch their votes before Election Day in several Midwestern states, and the Trump campaign is hoping to peel off some who backed Hillary Clinton but are having a rethink in the wake of the renewed FBI investigation into her emails.  Voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are allowed to void their early or absentee ballots and cast a new vote. While normally not an issue, that could end up playing a bigger role this year, with October surprises and each campaign fighting vigorously to disqualify the other. Dan Scavino, who handles social media for Donald Trump, sent out a tweet on Tuesday telling early or absentee voters in the four states there was still time to switch if they regretted voting for Mrs. Clinton.   It may only change a handful of votes, but recall Florida in 2000.  A handful of votes decided a presidential election.

November 1, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 10:54 A.M. ET:  While we're fighting the last days of our election campaign, others are making their own plans for us.  We will get no gifts.  From Breitbart: 

An Islamic State (ISIS)-linked propaganda magazine, published in English, Arabic, and French by the Nashir Media Foundation, is urging jihadists in Europe and the United States to carry out deadly “lone-wolf” attacks to avenge the terrorist group’s losses in Mosul.

In the second issue of the magazine, titled Nashir – Now Fight Has Come, the writers remind Muslims across the globe of the “privilege” they have residing “among our enemies who live peacefully in their countries,” notes the Foreign Desk (FD).

“Every soldier fights on the Caliphate land [in Iraq and Syria] wishes to be in your place. We can cut the tail of the snake but it will sooner grow again. But you have its head,” adds the magazine.

“Brave Mosul is bleeding. You should stop its bleeding by carrying out exhaustion operations of the Enemy’s power and blood … cut their heads by your knives, let us hear your guns blasting their heads,” it also states, according to FD.

A U.S.-backed force of at least 30,000 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Sunni tribesmen, Shiite militiamen, many backed by Iran, Kurdish Peshmerga troops, and Christian fighters is advancing towards Mosul in a push to liberate the city from ISIS.

And...

An article in the Nashir magazine titled “O thee whom Al – Adnani called thee wolves” echoes previous calls to war by former ISIS commander and chief propagandist Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, stressing the importance of local jihad and urging jihadists that “if the tyrants have shut the doors of hijra [immigration to ISIS territories] in your face, then open the gate of jihad in their faces and make them regret their action.”

“Jihadists are persuaded not to wait to see the outcome of the battle for Mosul, but rather launch attacks on coalition countries by any means possible,” reports FD.

COMMENT:  Not a love letter.  A week from tonight we'll know who the next president will be, and then the challenges really begin.  And a lot of people might regret their votes.

November 1, 2016       Permalink

THE CLINTONS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  I know many people, including some on our side, who will vote for Hillary Clinton because they can't stand Donald Trump.  I get it.  Trump, who has never been a favorite here, is no ornament to American politics. 

But, with all of Trump's vulgarity, we should examine why the race is this close, and it has much to do with Clinton, Inc., a political corporation that repels rather than attracts.  From the great Victor Davis Hanson in National Review:   

Epic greed, power, and pride: Where’s the bottom? With Bill and Hillary, there’s no telling.

What was the Clinton telos? The end point, the aim of all their lying, cheating, criminality, dishonor, and degradation?

Given the latest Weiner scandals coming on top of the latest WikiLeaks scandals, we wonder, what did the Clintons really wish to end up as — and why? Are they Goethe’s Faust or tortured souls crushed by the weight of their money bags in Dante’s Fourth Circle of Hell?

For a few criminals, remorse comes with old age; but for the Clintons, near-70 was to be the capstone, the last chance to trump all their prior shenanigans. They were artists of amorality, and the election of 2016 was to be their magnum opus.

Collate the FBI reopened investigation, WikiLeaks Podesta trove, revelations about the Clinton Foundation, the e-mail–server scandal, the DNC disclosures, and the various off-the-cuff campaign remarks of Bill and Hillary Clinton, and one then ponders what was the point of the Clinton shakedowns, the loss of reputation, the crude lawbreaking, as they neared their seventh decade. To paraphrase Barack Obama, in his progressive sermonizing on making enough money, did the two ever think they had enough money, enough honors, enough power already?

The Hillary/Bill fortune — generated by pay-for-play influence peddling on the proposition that Bill would return to the White House under Hillary’s aegis and reward friends while punishing enemies — hit a reported $150 million some time ago, a fortune built not on farming, mining, insurance, finance, high-tech, or manufacturing, but on skimming off money. The Clintons are simply grifters whose insider access to government gave them the power to make rich people richer.

COMMENT:  That says it.  Read the whole thing.  It's a worthy indictment.  We are at a very low point in American politics.  Think of it this way:  If you wanted to present the United States of America to a foreign audience, would you present this election campaign?

November 1, 2016       Permalink 

STUNNING – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  The RealClearPolitics average of polls this morning has Hillary Clinton up only 2.2 points over Donald Trump.  A few weeks ago she was up between 5 and 6 points. 

But the election is a week away, a lifetime in politics.  Anything can happen.

The most dramatic reverse is in the Washington Post/ABC tracker, which, for the first time since May, shows trump ahead.  From ABC News: 

Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.

While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump -- a first since May -- in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.

Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.

Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an after-effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.

COMMENT:  It will be enthusiasm we'll be looking at as the election approaches.  The Democrats have a much better ground game than the GOP has, but that can be negated by lack of enthusiasm.  You'll notice that the Dems are trying to energize their base, even going so far as to suggest, without using the exact language, that Hillary Clinton is being treated by law enforcement the way blacks are treated.  Not a classy approach.

It's very hard actually to measure enthusiasm.  It wouldn't be so critical if one candidate were 15 points ahead.  But this contest is racing to what could be a dead heat in the polls on election day.

November 1,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 31,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

CURIOSER AND CURIOSER – The most baffling question of the day are the statements of support for FBI Director James Comey from President Obama and Vice President Biden...at the same time that Hillary Clinton is bashing him, and her flunkies are calling for his banishment.  What's going on here?  Do Obama and Biden know something that would compel them to keep a sudden distance from Clinton?  Are they fed up with the constant scandals of Clinton, Inc.?  If Clinton is elected next week, and the FBI probe into the newly discovered e-mails turns up something really grim, Obama may have to pardon the new president.  Trump is calling this a Constitutional crisis, and he may be right.

TOUGH RUSSIANS – FROM LONDON'S EXPRESS:   A senior Russian diplomat has warned Norway it is now on the Kremlin's list of potential nuclear targets after it granted the US permission to base 300 marines on its soil.   Cold War tensions between Moscow and Washington erupted last week after Washington revealed plans to station the elite commandos in Norway.  Frants Klintsevitsj, a deputy chairman of Russia's defence and security committee, gave a furious response to the deployment.  In a chilling threat at the peace-loving Scandinavians, he warned: "This is very dangerous for Norway and Norwegians."  He continued: "How should we react to this? We have never before had Norway on the list of targets for our strategic weapons. But if this develops, Norway's population will suffer.  We need to react against definitive military threats. And we have things to react to, I might as well tell it like it is."  Americans seem unaware that a new Cold War has started.  The Russians are not shrinking, they are building.  Obama's weakness has made this possible.

MORE TRUMP PROGRESS – FROM THE HILL:   Donald Trump owns a slim 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire with eight days to go until Election Day, according to a new poll.  Trump tops Clinton 45 percent to 43 percent with the Granite State’s likely voters in the New Hampshire Journal/Inside Sources survey out Monday.  Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson grabs 4 percent, followed by Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein’s 2 percent.  Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin registers at 1 percent, while 2 percent prefer another candidate and 4 percent are undecided.  Trump’s lead shrinks to 1 point, however, in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee.  Little by little, Trump is picking up support in highly contested states.  The question is whether he will run out of time.  The election is next week.

October 31,  2016     Permalink

JOURNALISTIC CORRUPTION, PLAIN AND SIMPLE – AT 1:14 P.M. ET:  It doesn't get clearer than this.  And we know about it only because of Wikileaks.  It doesn't take too much imagination to speculate on what we don't know.  From Fox:

Another leaked email has emerged showing Democratic National Committee boss and former CNN contributor Donna Brazile sharing a debate question in advance with the Hillary Clinton campaign -- despite Brazile's persistent claims to the contrary.

CNN announced in a statement soon after the email became public Monday that Brazile had tendered her resignation and the network accepted it on Oct. 14, days after the controversy over Brazile tipping off the Clinton campaign initially broke.

According to documents released Monday by WikiLeaks, Brazile sent Clinton Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri an email titled, “One of the questions directed to HRC tomorrow is from a woman with a rash,” the night before the March 6 CNN primary debate in Flint, Mich.

“Her family has lead poison and she will ask what, if anything, will Hillary do as president to help the ppl of Flint,” Brazile wrote.

The following night, Lee-Anne Walters, a mom whose twin boys stopped growing and whose daughter lost her hair during the Flint water contamination crisis, posed a question to both Clinton, the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, and her primary opponent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“After my family, the city of Flint and the children in D.C. were poisoned by lead, will you make a personal promise to me right now that, as president, in your first 100 days in office, you will make it a requirement that all public water systems must remove all lead service lines throughout the entire United States, and notification made to the — the citizens that have said service lines?” Walters asked.

And...

Brazile had been under fire over an earlier email chain appearing to show her tipping off the campaign before a town hall event later that same month. That exchange began with Brazile sending Palmieri the text of a question about the death penalty in an email with the subject line: “From time to time I get the questions in advance.”

After Palmieri responded, Brazile wrote back: “I’ll send a few more.”

Roland Martin asked the death penalty question verbatim the next night during a CNN town hall.

Brazile's role as a CNN contributor was suspended when she took over as interim DNC head in July, but on Oct. 14, in light of the email revelations, CNN said it accepted her full resignation.

COMMENT:  Media corruption is one of the most important issues facing us, although the media would love to file it away.  A free press is critical to a functioning democracy and a free people.  If the press is corrupt, the decisions of the electorate will be corrupt.  And democratic government dies.

October 31, 2016       Permalink

THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY...WELL, THE UGLY – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  Do you recall any election in which both candidates were so disliked?  I mean, we've had characters like Dick Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill ("I did not have sex...") Clinton, and they weren't as disliked. 

Who's running this year?  Bonnie and Clyde.

From the Washington Post: 

Registered voters see Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a nearly identical negative light, mirroring a persistently close split in overall vote preference in a new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters have an unfavorable impression of Clinton (59 percent), and an identical percentage see Trump negatively. Nearly half of registered voters, 47 percent, have a "strongly unfavorable" view of Clinton and Trump alike.

The parity in basic popularity undermines a key advantage for Clinton throughout most of a presidential campaign where Trump set records as most unpopular presidential candidate in polling history. Clinton's ratings were consistently negative, but were only rarely as troubled as her opponent.

Vote preferences among likely voters continue to be closely divided in the Post-ABC Tracking Poll, with Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 45 percent, the same split as the previous wave reported Sunday. In a two-way matchup excluding third-party candidates, voters split 49-47 between Clinton and Trump; the margin was 49-46 percent in the previous daily tracking poll.

COMMENT:  You'd think we could do better.  Next Tuesday we will elect a president who will be instantly despised by most of the American people.  What an accomplishment. 

Of course, if it's Clinton, the media will start a major makeover.  She's wonderful.  She's brilliant.  She's Mother Courage.  She's misunderstood.  If it's Trump, the media will, after being treated for shock, announce that the public was fooled, and that the "flyover people" shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway. 

There is a Chinese curse:  "May you live in interesting times."  The times are getting a little too interesting.

October 31, 2016       Permalink

NO STUNNERS YET – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  We're starting a little late this morning because I've been checking as many sources as possible to determine the political damage to Hillary Clinton from Friday's FBI announcement.

The verdict:  Incomplete.  Some of the trackers don't poll over the weekends.  This is not due to vacation envy.   Lifestyles change on weekends and some pollsters feel they're not getting an accurate picture.  Most trackers are rolling polls that reflect three days of surveys.  So, some of the trackers published this morning reflect Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week.  The FBI announcement was made late Friday.  We won't get a full picture of the impact, if any, for another few days, when all the polling takes account of the FBI's statement.

However, there has been some impact in overall polling already, reflecting not only the FBI story but Hillary Clinton's general deterioration in the days before Friday's announcement.  The RealClearPolitics average of polls stands this morning at Clinton up 2.9%.  She had been up by 5-6% early last week.  We're now within the margin of error.  The easy victory isn't so easy any longer.

We'll track each day until the election.  If the present trend continues, do not be shocked if the average of polls shows a dead heat on election day.  Or maybe a slight Trump lead.  (Of course, if there's one person who can blow his advantage in the final days, it's Donald Trump.  They've got to keep him scripted and on meds.)

The key will be turnout.  Who will vote?  Who will decide to stay home?  Richard Nixon won the presidency in 1968 because a number of Democrats stayed home, in protest against the Vietnam War. 

Is anybody happy?

October 31,  2016     Permalink